Vinsights Vol. 330: Time Will Tell on Tariffs

🗞️ Industry roundup:

FROM WARDSAUTO: Auto market thrives despite rising inventories, economic and political pressures

Rising inventory levels, declining fleet sales, and increasing consumer affordability concerns are putting pressure on the U.S. auto market, with negative equity on trade-ins climbing to 25.5% of buyers. Despite these challenges, new-vehicle retail sales are projected to rise 8.1% in February 2025, marking five consecutive months of growth. Strong consumer demand and stable transaction prices, averaging $44,619, continue to drive record spending, reinforcing market resilience amid shifting economic conditions.

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FROM REUTERS: Automakers warn that Trump tariffs will hike vehicle prices as much as 25%

The U.S. auto industry is grappling with potential disruptions as new tariffs on vehicle imports from Canada and Mexico raise concerns about supply chain stability and rising costs. Some auto parts cross borders up to six times before final assembly, making sudden production adjustments challenging. The Alliance for Automotive Innovation, representing most major automakers, warns that some vehicle models could see price hikes of up to 25%, with immediate effects on costs and availability. However, while some automakers and dealers express concerns over supply chain disruptions and rising consumer costs, there is also interest in how the tariffs could have potential benefits for American workers.

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⚠️ Update: Trump delays auto tariffs. Pickup trucks might explain why.

FROM J.D. POWER: EV owner satisfaction improves but regulatory, incentive uncertainties create challenges, J.D. Power finds

EV ownership sentiment is shifting in 2025, with satisfaction levels rebounding after a decline in 2024, according to J.D. Power’s latest EVX Ownership Study. Despite concerns over potential cuts to EV tax incentives, BEV market share climbed to 9.1% in 2024, up from 8.4% the previous year. Meanwhile, mass market BEVs continue to outperform premium models in reliability, and 94% of current BEV owners intend to stick with electric for their next purchase, signaling strong long-term commitment to the technology.

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FROM AUTO REMARKETING: Making sense of February’s used-car retail prices

Used-car prices are fluctuating, with declines in six of seven segments, including a 5.6% year-over-year drop for pickups, while SUVs and hybrids saw modest monthly increases of 0.5% and 0.6%, respectively. Meanwhile, three-year-old vehicles have become more expensive, rising 3.3% year-over-year to an average of $29,710. With new-car incentives up 22.8% and financing costs climbing, buyers are facing a complex market where affordability pressures and shifting supply trends are shaping purchasing decisions.

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